Report on range of long-term scenarios to be simulated

In order to proceed with speculative modelling of the impacts of potential leakage of geologically stored carbon, it is necessary to develop plausible scenarios. Here a range of such scenarios are developed based on a consensus of the possible geological mechanisms of leakage, namely abandoned wells, geological faults and operational blowouts. Whilst the resulting scenarios remain highly speculative, they do enable short term progress in modelling and provide a basis for further debate and refinement

WP4 result summary report relevant for "Environmental Best Practice"

This report presents a distillation of the main findings from ECO2 WP4, together with information available from other EU and Nationally funded projects, presented within and specifically for the context of Environmental Best Practice. The information and key messages contained within this deliverable (D4.4) will be directly applied to the project wide “Guidance on Environmental Best Practice” and will form the basis of Chapter 6 “Assessing biological impact of CO2 leakage”. There were 8 key findings that came from the ECO2 research conducted with WP4: - Exposure to elevated levels of CO2 has a negative impact on marine organisms - There is a wide range of CO2 sensitivities across different marine taxa and groups - Care must be taken when predicting species specific response and sensitivity to CO2 for Environmental Risk Assessments - Exposure to elevated levels of CO2 has a negative impact on marine communities, biodiversity and ecosystem processes / functions - The leakage / release of formation water can have a negative impact on marine organisms - Other environmental factors could exacerbate or ameliorate the impact of CCS leakage - Some biological responses may be employed in a programme of Environmental Monitoring - Collecting spatially and temporally referenced biological data is important for creating effective Baseline Survey

Local perceptions of the QICS experimental offshore CO2 release: results from social science research.

This paper explores the social dimensions of an experimental release of carbon dioxide (CO2) carried out in Ardmucknish Bay, Argyll, United Kingdom. The experiment, which aimed to understand detectability and potential effects on the marine environment should there be any leakage from a CO2 storage site, provided a rare opportunity to study the social aspects of a carbon dioxide capture and storage-related event taking place in a lived-in environment. Qualitative research was carried out in the form of observation at public information events about the release, in-depth interviews with key project staff and local stakeholders/community members, and a review of online media coverage of the experiment. Focusing mainly on the observation and interview data, we discuss three key findings: the role of experience and analogues in learning about unfamiliar concepts like CO2 storage; the challenge of addressing questions of uncertainty in public engagement; and the issue of when to commence engagement and how to frame the discussion. We conclude that whilst there are clearly slippages between a small-scale experiment and full-scale CCS, the social research carried out for this project demonstrates that issues of public and stakeholder perception are as relevant for offshore CO2 storage as they are for onshore

Marine baseline and monitoring strategies for Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS)

The QICS controlled release experiment demonstrates that leaks of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas can be detected by monitoring acoustic, geochemical and biological parameters within a given marine system. However the natural complexity and variability of marine system responses to (artificial) leakage strongly suggests that there are no absolute indicators of leakage or impact that can unequivocally and universally be used for all potential future storage sites. We suggest a multivariate, hierarchical approach to monitoring, escalating from anomaly detection to attribution, quantification and then impact assessment, as required. Given the spatial heterogeneity of many marine ecosystems it is essential that environmental monitoring programmes are supported by a temporally (tidal, seasonal and annual) and spatially resolved baseline of data from which changes can be accurately identified. In this paper we outline and discuss the options for monitoring methodologies and identify the components of an appropriate baseline survey

Review of offshore CO2 storage monitoring: operational and research experiences of meeting regulatory and technical requirements

Legislation for offshore storage has been developing over the last decade or so and is currently most developed in Europe. Although the large-scale operating sites in Europe were started prior to the regulations coming into force, any planned sites will need to meet these regulatory requirements. Our review of monitoring experiences from both the operating sites and research at experimental injection sites and in areas of natural CO2 seepage suggest that broadly, the technical and regulatory challenges of offshore monitoring can be met. A full report reviewing offshore monitoring including tool capabilities, practicalities and costs is available from IEAGHG (released Q1 2016)

Modelling Large-Scale CO2 Leakages in the North Sea

A three dimensional hydrodynamic model with a coupled carbonate speciation sub-model is used to simulate large additions of CO2 into the North Sea, representing leakages at potential carbon sequestration sites. A range of leakage scenarios are conducted at two distinct release sites, allowing an analysis of the seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of impacts to the marine ecosystem. Seasonally stratified regions are shown to be more vulnerable to CO2 release during the summer as the added CO2 remains trapped beneath the thermocline, preventing outgasing to the atmosphere. On average, CO2 injected into the northern North Sea is shown to reside within the water column twice as long as an equivalent addition in the southern North Sea before reaching the atmosphere. Short-term leakages of 5000 tonnes CO2 over a single day result in substantial acidification at the release sites (up to -1.92 pH units), with significant perturbations (greater than 0.1 pH units) generally confined to a 10 km radius. Long-term CO2 leakages sustained for a year may result in extensive plumes of acidified seawater, carried by major advective pathways. Whilst such scenarios could be harmful to marine biota over confined spatial scales, continued unmitigated CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are predicted to result in greater and more long-lived perturbations to the carbonate system over the next few decades

Ocean acidification with (de)eutrophication will alter future phytoplankton growth and succession

Human activity causes ocean acidification (OA) though the dissolution of anthropogenically generated CO2 into seawater, and eutrophication through the addition of inorganic nutrients. Eutrophication increases the phytoplankton biomass that can be supported during a bloom, and the resultant uptake of dissolved inorganic carbon during photosynthesis increases water-column pH (bloom-induced basification). This increased pH can adversely affect plankton growth. With OA, basification commences at a lower pH. Using experimental analyses of the growth of three contrasting phytoplankton under different pH scenarios, coupled with mathematical models describing growth and death as functions of pH and nutrient status, we show how different conditions of pH modify the scope for competitive interactions between phytoplankton species. We then use the models previously configured against experimental data to explore how the commencement of bloom-induced basification at lower pH with OA, and operating against a background of changing patterns in nutrient loads, may modify phytoplankton growth and competition. We conclude that OA and changed nutrient supply into shelf seas with eutrophication or de-eutrophication (the latter owing to pollution control) has clear scope to alter phytoplankton succession, thus affecting future trophic dynamics and impacting both biogeochemical cycling and fisheries

A guide for assessing the potential impacts on ecosystems of leakage from CO2 storage sites

Evidence to date indicates that leakage is of low probability if site selection, characterisation and storage project design are undertaken correctly. In Europe, the Storage Directive (EC, 2009) provides a legislative framework, implemented by Member States, which requires appropriate project design to ensure the storage of CO2 is permanent and safe. However, it is incumbent on storage site operators to demonstrate an understanding of the potential impacts on surface ecosystems should a leak occur. The RISCS (Research into Impacts and Safety in CO2 Storage) project has produced a Guide to potential impacts of leakage from CO2 storage (the ‘Guide’). RISCS assessed the potential effects of CO2 leakage from geological storage on both onshore and offshore near-surface ecosystems and on potable ground water. This assessment was achieved through laboratory and field experiments, through observations at sites of natural CO2 seepage and through numerical simulations. The Guide summarises some of the key findings of the project. The Guide provides information on the best approaches to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical leakage from CO2 storage sites and to provide guidance on appraising these impacts. This information will be relevant to regulators and operators in particular, but also to other stakeholders who are concerned with CO2 storage, such as national and local governments, and members of the public

Climate-driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean can greatly reduce the circulation of the North Sea

We demonstrate for the first time a direct oceanic link between climate‐driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans and the circulation of the northwest European shelf‐seas. Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea, and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st Century. The northern North Sea inflow decreases from 1.2‐1.3Sv (1Sv=106 m3s‐1) to 0.0‐0.6Sv with Atlantic water largely bypassing the North Sea. This is traced to changes in oceanic haline stratification and gyre structure, and to a newly identified circulation‐salinity feedback. The scenario presented here is of a novel potential future state for the North Sea, with wide‐ranging environmental management and societal impacts. Specifically, the sea would become more estuarine and susceptible to anthropogenic influence with an enhanced risk of coastal eutrophication

A novel sub-seabed CO\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e release experiment informing monitoring and impact assessment for geological carbon storage

© 2014 The Authors. Carbon capture and storage is a mitigation strategy that can be used to aid the reduction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This process aims to capture CO2 from large point-source emitters and transport it to a long-term storage site. For much of Europe, these deep storage sites are anticipated to be sited below the sea bed on continental shelves. A key operational requirement is an understanding of best practice of monitoring for potential leakage and of the environmental impact that could result from a diffusive leak from a storage complex. Here we describe a controlled CO2 release experiment beneath the seabed, which overcomes the limitations of laboratory simulations and natural analogues. The complex processes involved in setting up the experimental facility and ensuring its successful operation are discussed, including site selection, permissions, communications and facility construction. The experimental design and observational strategy are reviewed with respect to scientific outcomes along with lessons learnt in order to facilitate any similar future